The recent flare-up on the southern Lebanese border raised concerns of a new conflict between Lebanon and Israel, partly due to the fact that some of the status-quo rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel had been broken in the process.
Notably, Michel Hayek had predicted something similar during his forecast for this year, last December.
“Contrary to the will of Hezbollah and Israel, in one day, the rules of the game will break and all controls will be lost,” Hayek said during his forecast for Lebanon.
The rules were considered to have been broken when Israel conducted airstrikes deep in South Lebanon for the first time since the 2006 War.
Although the Israeli warplanes did not directly strike any targets other than open fields, the attack was considered an escalation from previous incidents, during which the exchange of fire would usually be limited to open areas strictly along the border.
The airstrikes, which came in response to a rocket attack on Israel originating in Lebanon, warranted a response from Hezbollah, which fired a volley of rockets that fell near Israeli military bases in occupied Lebanese territory.
Later, Israel shelled southern Lebanon in response, again targeting only open fields, as had Hezbollah in its rocket attack.
The brief confrontation is said to have altered the rules of engagement and introduced a new equation into the border game.
You can check out the full list of Michel Hayek‘s predictions for 2021, here.