Trump’s recent win has significantly shifted the dynamics, especially with expectations that he will work to resolve ongoing global conflicts like Israel-Gaza, Israel-Hezbollah, and Russia-Ukraine, as he campaigned on. There’s also a belief that he’ll take a tough, aggressive stance on Iran, similar to his previous term, in order to force a new deal that would also involve Hezbollah. Trump himself has suggested this will be a priority shortly after taking office in January.
Whether this actually unfolds remains to be seen, but Israel is unwilling to risk leaving Hezbollah in a position to rebuild or allowing Iran to gain leverage before any potential negotiations with the US. Nearly everything Israel has done in recent weeks appears aimed at securing the upper hand in these future talks. All with the shared goal of disarming Hezbollah completely – not simply to the Litani River as UNSC resolution 1701 requires.
With just under two months until Trump takes office, Israel is focused on weakening Hezbollah as much as possible and stripping Iran of any leverage in upcoming negotiations – ensuring an outcome that favors both Israel and the US.
While there will likely be continued discussions of ceasefires, any that do occur will likely be short-lived, similar to those in Gaza. Israel will continue exerting maximum pressure to further weaken Hezbollah and solidify its advantage.
As Speaker Berri increasingly appears to speak on behalf of Hezbollah, we’ve seen escalating attacks in areas considered his strongholds, like Sour (Tyre) and now Chiyah, likely to pressure him into moderating his tone.
In the coming weeks, we can expect intensified air raids, targeted killings of Hezbollah leaders and members (potentially extending to its political and media wings), and efforts to track down and eliminate wanted Hezbollah figures among displaced populations. It wouldn’t be surprising if Israel pushes deeper into South Lebanon, potentially using a future withdrawal as a bargaining chip in negotiations. I believe the war timeline may be shortened but intensified.
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