Trump’s victory in the US elections, notably winning Michigan – a state with a large Lebanese-American population – reflects the hopes of many Lebanese for an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war.
Interestingly, Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Dr. Masaad Boulos, played a significant role in mobilizing the Lebanese and Arab vote for Trump. He’s likely to become an influential figure in the new administration’s Middle East policies, particularly in Lebanese affairs, and may already be involved in ongoing ceasefire discussions.
However, a pro-Lebanon US administration isn’t likely. Israel remains America’s primary ally and priority, though we might see a shift toward balancing the equation somewhat.
I anticipate Trump will intensify pressure on Iran and Hezbollah through more sanctions, targeted strikes on Hezbollah and Houthi forces, and potentially support Israel in further dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Even if Iran is pressured into distancing itself from Hezbollah, the group may continue fighting independently, potentially leading to a prolonged but more contained conflict with selective strikes to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping.
Simultaneously, there may be discussions about bolstering the Lebanese army with modern weaponry, contingent on a full deployment to the South to prevent a power vacuum and reduce Hezbollah’s influence. Support for anti-Hezbollah political groups and parties could increase, shifting the balance of power away from Hezbollah and indirectly diminishing Iran’s grip on Lebanon.
Economically, we might see a significant boost in USAID, aimed at revitalizing Lebanon’s economy and aiding post-war reconstruction, as Trump has pledged. This support could extend to strengthening the Lebanese army, legal institutions, banking sector, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Such initiatives could reorient Lebanon towards a West-leaning stance, opening up the country both economically and diplomatically again.
Trump will likely push to expand the Abraham Accords and finalize the nearing deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It’s possible that any substantial aid package to Lebanon (military, economic, legal, diplomatic, etc.) might come with conditions – potentially requiring Lebanon to normalize relations with Israel – or compromising with formal border demarcation, building upon the previous maritime agreement, and eventually, a peace treaty to end the state of war officially.
Given the dire state of Lebanon’s economy, exacerbated by years of crisis, the government might have no choice but to agree to these terms. Without external financial support for post-war reconstruction – Saudi Arabia, the GCC, and Europe have shown no interest while Hezbollah remains powerful – Lebanon may find itself with no other lifeline. With Iran under economic strain and potentially further isolated by renewed US sanctions, even Hezbollah’s funding could be cut off, leaving Lebanon with limited options for recovery.
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